President-elect Barack Obama

The 2008 presidential election, historic for an unprecedented amount of reasons, represents the first steps in a major generational transition. President-elect Obama, who registered a 66% to 32% victory amongst young voters, has ushered in the newest generation of American citizens. In his landslide Electoral College victory, Obama’s base was in significant part made up of the millennial generation, those voters under the age of 30. This astounding margin puts forth several questions about the changing political landscape and their ideology. First and foremost, is Obama’s success in large part attributable to the youth vote? And, if so, does this unprecedented margin of victory predict a stable majority for Democrats in the future?

Affirmative answers to these poignant questions would fundamentally alter the future of our country, as the entire millennial generation should be eligible to vote by 2016. In other words, as one generation begins to wane away, another rises up to become the majority. According to the Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning and Engagement, anywhere from 21.6 million to 23.9 million young Americans voted this election. Although this will not represent the greatest percent of youth voters to turn out when eligible to vote, the largest gap between candidates in history is the more significant story. Obama dominated McCain amongst the young voters on a 2:1 ratio, thus representing the clear ideological stance of young voters on Election Day. An increase of at least 2.2 million young voters since 2004, the youth turnout percentage could end up being the highest since 1972, when the voting age was changed to 18. So, the stage for electoral significance was clearly set for young voters in 2008. Now, the question is, how did this vote affect the Electoral College?

When dealing with such small margins in significant battleground states, an overwhelming victory in one core bloc of voters can completely sway the state. In decisive battleground states like Virginia, Indiana, Iowa, North Carolina, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, the share of the youth vote in the electorate was approximately 20%, quite enough to flip a state with otherwise close margins. This figure, up from about an average of 16% youth voter turnout share in these states in 2004, represented a clear opportunity for young voters to flip traditionally red states to blue states. For example, Virginia, a historically red state, saw their youth share of the electorate increase from 17% to 21%. If the unprecedented gap of youth support between candidates did not exist, it is improbable the traditional margin could have been trumped. But, given the 21% gap of support for Obama over McCain, up from a mere 8% for Kerry over Bush, and the increase in young voter share, Virginia ended up going blue for Obama. The same case existed in many of these battleground states including: Indiana, Iowa, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. Therefore, we can be fairly certain, with the rough survey numbers available right after the election, that the immense gap between the two candidates played a significant role in creating Obama’s winning coalition.

Looking more specifically into the young voter bloc, minority youth voter turnout was significantly slanted towards Obama as well. Young African American voters, whose entire race voted for Obama at a rate of 95% to 4%, followed suit at a rate of 95% to 5%. This gap increased from 2004, where Kerry held an 88% to 12% lead over Bush. For Latinos, whose rising population is largely responsible for Obama’s success in the mid-western states of Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico, also backed the President-elect. At a rate of 76% to 19%, Obama’s support increased by 18% over Kerry’s 58%. It is important to note that, even though white young voters only supported Obama at a rate of 54% to 44%, the increasing youth minority bloc pulled this gap even wider. With this in mind, the initial stages of a changing demographic in our country are materializing. These changes, if Democrats can solidify them, would leave them with a sizable majority of the growing minority vote.

Now that we have been able to observe the youth trends, we can easily tell that Obama’s landslide victory was at least partially attributable to the youth vote. As far as the youth vote is concerned, had John Kerry seen this type of gap, instead of splitting the youth vote in several new Obama states, we may not even be discussing this scenario. With that said, it is clear this “Future Majority,” or next generation of tomorrow, swayed to the left this Election Day. But, can the Democrats translate this success today into a large majority base of left-leaning voters tomorrow? The answer lies within how each party approaches the next couple of elections.

According to Young Voter Strategies, partisanship develops during the youth voting years. And, once this loyalty is developed, it can remain an entire lifetime. For this reason, it is crucial for the Democrats to cement this support before the Republicans have the opportunity to reverse it. That the Democrats even have the chance to create such a strong majority for the future is truly a spectacular development. Thus, the party that can solidify the support of the youth now can develop a dependably stable voting bloc for several elections. For Democrats, the most important thing is to realize that these voters, just because they are voting Democratic, does not mean that they are a sure thing for the future. With 27% of young voters identifying themselves as independents, the tides can change at any moment. For Republicans, the most important thing is to devote more resources to this group before it is too late. Since approximately a quarter of young voters are independent identifiers, they are not linked to any party just yet. This optimistic tidbit of information seems to wither away when one realizes that Obama’s resounding youth gap necessitated at least a solid portion of these independent young voters to support him. By the looks of this 2008 election, the window of opportunity to solidify our next generation’s support is closing for the Republican Party.

For Further Reading:

http://www.futuremajority.com/

http://www.rockthevote.com/assets/publications/research/rtv_partisanship_is_a_habit-2007.pdf

http://www.civicyouth.org/

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#USP00p1

http://www.civicyouth.org/PopUps/FactSheets/FS_04_Minority_vote.pdf